Monday, September 21, 2009

And the Numbers are in....

Well hoop fans, as most people are gearing up for post-season baseball or settling in for Sunday afternoon football, its up to us to pick apart the much talked about preseason top 25. Now, I thought about making my own top 25, but after sitting down and writing it out, I compared it to the actual preseason poll put out and there were only only 3 very slight differences. You can't make this stuff up folks, especially when it comes to the top 10, so we will just go head and break down the poll in use. As much as I wish I could sit here and do all top 25 right now, the real world and a real pay check thinks otherwise. So we will only do the top 5 today. This is how they are listed.

1. Kansas
2. Michigan State
3. Texas
4. Villanova
5. North Carolina

The March Madness Mastermind's top 5 mirrored this one exactly except for the fact that I had Nova' at 3 and Texas at 4, like I said, slight differences. Pretty much everyone in the college basketball world knows that these are the best 5 teams in the county, and I would argue the top 2 being a cut above the rest. Lets take a closer look at the strengths and weakness of each team individually.

1.Kansas- The Jayhawaks, on paper, clearly have the best team in the nation right now. Returning Cole Aldrich means the world for Kansas. Aldrich, a 6'11 junior that averaged 14.5 ppg last season, gives the Jayhawks the best big man, and possibly the best player in the big 12. Along with returning senior guard Sherron Collins (18.9 ppg) the Jayhawks will be in 2 team race with Texas for the Big 12 title and one of my preseason picks to head up a number 1 seed in March.

Strengths:
Expect the Jayhawks to benefit from a Griffinless Oklahoma team. Although Kansas may have fizzled out in March last year before they feel they should have, they are experienced, battle tested, and hungry. The 1-2 combination of Aldrich and Collins, with the support of up and coming sophomore Tyshawn Taylor, will be too much to handle for most of the Big 12.

Weaknesses:
Honestly, I am struggling to see many right now. The only question about the Jayhawks at this point is how much production they will be getting beyond the big 2 of Aldrich and Collins. Guys like Brady Morningstar, Marcus Morris, and Tyrell Reed will have to step it up a notch to insure that the Jayhawks end up where they should be, Indianapolis in March.

2. Michigan State- Had the Spartans been returning Goron Suton, they would have easily earned themselves the number 1 spot in my eyes. However, the 2009 National Runners-up do return Ramar Morgan, Delvon Roe, and Kalin Lucas, a pretty good going away gift in Suton's absence. Don't expect this team to soon forgot how close they got to glory last year in front of their own home crowd. If Tom Izzo's team can find someone to do even half of what Suton did inside last season, the Spartans may be cutting down the nets in Indianapolis instead of watching this year.

Strengths: I think its fairly obvious here that the Spartans biggest strength is the play of their guards. The three guards combined to average 31.5 points per game last year and you should expect that go up to about 45 ppg this season, with significant contributions from Durrel Summers also thrown in the mix. This year's Michigan State team is tournament tested. These young men have been to the brink of a National Title and know the extreme pressure that March can bring. The Big 10 will be down again this season, and as long as the Spartans can handle Purdue, they should have no problem winning their conference.

Weaknesses: Of course the glaring weakness is what to do about the absence of Suton on the inside. The only true center returning on the Spartans roster, Tom Herzog, averaged 2 minutes and .6 ppg last season. This may not be a factor in the Big 10, but come March when the Spartans run into Kansas and Cole Aldrich or Texas and Dexter Pittman or insert another good team with a good big man here, and have a sub-par shooting night, that could spell an early exit. Not to mention this year's Michigan State's team won't be nearly as underestimated as the Spartans of a year ago.

3. Texas- This is where I would have put Villanova, however we will discuss that later. Texas coming in at number 3 put the Big 12 on the radar even more this season. Of course the big factor here is Damion James and his 15 ppg and senior leadership coming back for another season coupled with the addition of top recruits Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton. However, although this Texas team may be very deep, my big X-factor here is Dexter Pittman. In my opinion Pittman's play is going to decide if Texas is a very good team or if the Longhorns are a legitimate national title contender. Stay tuned to find out whether Kansas or Texas will be the first to blink in the stare down for the Big 12 title.

Strengths: Depth, Depth, Depth. Texas is one of the deepest teams in the entire nation. They have good guards, good forwards, and a solid center. The Longhorns will also benefit from the senior leadership that Damion James and Dexter Pittman will provide on the floor to help develop the new freshman. Not to mention, the one time Texas will meet Kansas this year will be in Austin, a huge advantage for the Longhorns. Along with Kansas, Texas will benefit from the Griffin brothers heading to the NBA, making this conference virtually a 2 team race.

Weaknesses: Inexperience. As much as the experience of James and Pittman is one of Texas's strengths, the inexperience of their blue chip rookies is one of the glaring weaknesses the Longhorns have. Losing A.J. Abrams will be tough for the Longhorns to overcome, and they play 3 tough non-conference games against North Carolina, Michigan State, and at UConn. Traditionally Texas doesn't perform well in March, and they are going to have to toughen up down the stretch to change that trend.

4. Villanova- I still say this is my number 3 team and here is why. Although Villanova lost leading scorer Dante Cunningham, that is all they lost. Compared to what Syracuse, Pittsburg, UConn, and the rest of the Big East lost, Nova' is loaded. Scottie Reynolds will quarterback this team which, barring a huge collapse, should win the Big East by 2 games at least. The Wildcats incoming freshman class, possibly the best in the Big East, will only add to their dominance of the conference and a good shot at a number 1 seed in March.

Strengths: Nova's biggest strength comes externally from the weakened Big East this year. Although the Big East is ever an easy conference by any means, as I said before too many teams lost so much more than the Wildcats did. Along the same lines as Michigan Sate, Villanova will benefit from the Final Four experience from a year before, mirroring the Spartans by being knocked out by the eventual National Champions, UNC. If Scottie Reynolds takes over the leading role that will be expected of him, The Cats should win the Big East and make more noise in the tournament again this season.

Weaknesses: Again this year I see a big weakness for Villanova being a presence on the inside. Nova', much like the Duke teams of late, lives and dies by its guard play. In the 2009 NCAA tournament the Wildcats were able to sneak by Pitt and DeJaun Blair , but fell to UNC when Tyler Hansbrough became too much for them to handle. The Wildcats may struggle at times when their guards end up in foul trouble or have an off shooting night.

5. North Carolina- There is no need to get into what the Defending National Champions lost to the NBA draft this year, because everyone in the college basketball world knows it was a ton. On the plus side for the Heels they get senior guard and defensive specialist Marcus Ginyard back after sitting out last year with an injury. Throw in sophomore Ed Davis and some production from Tyler Zeller, and the Heels will still be a huge contender in the ACC.

Strengths: Roy Williams is going to find a way to win folks and still has what seems to be his always endless deep bench. Ginyard will be the leader of this team, and Ed Davis is poised to have a tremendous breakout season for this team. UNC has brought in one of the strongest recruiting classes in the nation, with rookie John Henson looking to have a huge freshman season. Pay special attention to the Tar Heels non-conference schedule that sends them to Texas and Kentucky, and gives them a National Championship rematch at home against Michigan State. This may seem like a weakness, but these games will build toughness for the young Heels.

Weaknesses: By far the biggest question mark for the Tar Heels is going to be the point guard position. With Ty Lawson (and his toe) and his back up Bobby Frasior both gone, the point position will most likely be left to Larry Drew III at least to start the season. To say the least, Drew III looked less than impressive during his limited time on the court for the Tar Heels last year. Inexperience of all the young players will rear its ugly head for UNC, especially in Big ACC games and in March. Although the Heels will always bounce back, they may be waiting until next season to see another shot at the Final Four.

Those are my thoughts on the top 5 ladies and gentlemen. Feel free to agree/disagree and let me know if there is anything you think I missed that should be added. In my opinion any of these top 4 teams have what it takes to win a National Championship. As soon as I get a chance I will dissect 6-10, which will be a bit of a harder task as the strengths become less and the weakness increase. Enjoy!

2 comments:

  1. You know how I hate complimenting people, but this blog is fantastic. No real surprises in the poll, but you mentioned that. The one qualm I have is with Duke (and those of you who know me know I hate Duke, but that's only because they suck donkey dicks for fun). Everyone always expects the returning players for Duke to step up, but at some point they are who they are. Scheyer didn't step up to score 20 points a game last year, I don't believe he will this year. He's going to be the same dude as the last 3 years, around 12 ppg, his open shots. Zoubek hasn't proven that he can step up his game either. With the transfer (Smith? Nelson? They inserted him into the starting lineup late in the season over Paulus) leaving, the only NBA player on Duke is Kyle Singler. The most egrigous example of this was Paulus. Every year, it was, "returning starter Paulus, 2 year starter Paulus, back for his senior year Paulus." but just because he's back doesn't mean he's getting better. He never showed athleticism he was growing into to get better and his stats remained mostly the same through his career until he even got WORSE at the end. It happens with all teams, but not many ranked in the top 10 where I think Duke ends up a lot of times based on reputation. I hear their coach is OK though.

    Keep writing, this blog is great.

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  2. And start from ten and work down. Who starts at six and works to ten and from one to five????

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