Wednesday, September 23, 2009

And the Numbers are in...Part II

Well hoops fans I must apologize, I didn't even realize how long my top 5 preview was until I went back and read it myself. Sorry, but when I get on a roll I'm harder to stop than a John Wooden team in the late 60's-early 70's. Never the less we will try to keep the rest of the top 10 a little bit shorter, but no promises can be made. With my disclaimer out of the way, here is what we are looking at to round out the preseason top 10.

6. Purdue
7. Kentucky
8. Tennessee
9. West Virginia
10. Duke

No need for pointless rambling here, lets get right down to it...

6. Purdue- Michigan State's only real roadblock to the Big 10 championship. After high expectations Purdue saw their season start to go downhill after being embarrassed in a non-conference contest at Duke (they lost 76-60) and around the same time star Robbie Hummel started having health problems that would plague him all season. However, this year Hummel is back and healthy and coupled with E'Twaun Moore (13.8 ppg) and JaJuan Johnson (13.4 ppg) the Boilermakers are locked, loaded, and ready to live up to their expectations this season.

Strengths: Experience. Purdue is returning the core of its team from last season, a team that pulled it together at the end of the season to win the Big 10 tournament. In fact, the Boilermakers only lost 12.7 ppg in their 4 graduating seniors. Much like Michigan State, Purdue will reap the benefits of spending all season battling Big 10 teams that are surrounded by question marks.

Weaknesses: Last season, with nearly an identical team (aside from the unhealthy Hummel) the Boilermakers were full of inconsistency. When Purdue was truly tested, especially on the road, they lost and more often than not by a considerable margin to Duke, Illinois, and Michigan State by 16, 2o, and 11 respectively. After squeaking by Washington in the 2nd round of the NCAA's, The Boilermakers suffered another double digit loss to UConn in the Sweet 16. Purdue needs to find a way to play good basketball as a team night in and night out, at home and on the road, if they plan on staying in the top 10 and on the heels of the Spartans this season.

7. Kentucky- Oh Kentucky, Kentucky Kentucky. No team has been surrounded by more off season buzz than the Kentucky Wildcats (well except maybe Memphis, Mr. Calipari are you ready for your close up?). John Calipari has been brought into Lexington in hopes of digging the Wildcats out of the basement of the SEC and back to the glory days of Adolph Rupp, Rick Pitino, and Tubby Smith, but he's going to have to find a way to do it without leading scorer Jodie Meeks.

Strengths: Well with Calipari at the helm, the Wildcats have went out and hired a coach that can make up for the failed Billy Gillispie experiment. Although losing Meeks is a huge blow for Kentucky, they will have the luxury of returning second leading scorer, and now team leader, Patrick Patterson (17.9 ppg). Calipari also brought along with him a slew of talented freshman that either made Kentucky their school after he got the job or broke their commitment to Memphis when he left. Looks like everyone is a winner in this situation. (Memphis fans may wish to disregard that last sentence)

Weaknesses: Where do I begin? Yes, returning Patterson is a great for the Wildcats but lets be real folks, Jodie Meeks was Kentucky's team last season. This team looked to Meeks to be the play maker and game changer, and now they will take the court without him. John Calipari was a great coach in Memphis...once he had good players and was able to develop them. Although Calipari has brought his army of young talent with him to Lexington, Rome wasn't built in a day. There is no doubt in my mind that Kentucky is on their way back up, but this is not the year. I think they are over rated and will fall from this spot early. Tune in December 5th when they battle UNC to watch the Wildcats try to prove me wrong.

8. Tennessee- The SEC East this season will be Bruce Pearl's Volunteers against Calipari's Wildcats. Tennessee returns their leading scorer from last season, Tyler Smith (17.4 ppg), which is always a plus starting a new season. The Volunteers also have a star studded sophomore class that will play a huge part in the success of this team. The true test whether or not this team is for real will come on Jan. 10th when they play host to Kansas.

Strengths: The most important thing for the Volunteers is returning Tyler Smith. Without Smith Tennessee struggles to even crack my top 25. However, what a lot of people are overlooking between Smith coming back and the huge class of sophomores, is the fact that Tennessee is also returning their second leading scorer and possibly their best man on the glass, Wayne Chism. His offense, defense and senior leadership, when coupled with Smith, may prove to be just as valuable, if not more so, than Smith's return.

Weaknesses: A lot of people in the hoops world preach its importance and I am no different, free throw percentage. Last season the Volunteers shot a dismal 67% from the free throw line. Now some people may say that if that is their only weakness, then the are in good shape. I would strongly disagree. Tennessee is going to find themselves in a lot of trench battles in the SEC East this year. Their inability to shoot from the charity stripe could swing many of their close games to the loss column. The Volunteers are also green when it comes to March play, after a first round exit from the tournament last season. It will be a very interesting battle between Tennessee and Kentucky for the SEC crown this season.

9. West Virginia- I personally ranked the Mountaineers this high based on the strength of their conference. Although they will tangle with Villanova this season, which I feel the Wildcats will handle them easily, that is all they have to deal with. Da'Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks will be the anchors of this team, combining for 27.6 ppg last season. Bob Huggins's squad, in my mind, is a lock for runner-up in the big east.

Strengths: Just like Villanova, the Mountaineers will cash in huge on a depleted Big East conference this season. Ebanks in my opinion is even more important to West Virginia than Butler is. With the numbers Ebanks put up as a freshman last season against the most powerful conference in the nation, Huggins should be expecting him to move mountains (no pun intended) this season. This years Mountaineers team also runs very deep, making them a threat come tournament time.

Weaknesses: Although Butler and Ebanks are back, the Mountaineers lost senior Alex Ruoff, and the 15.7 points a game that he brought along with him. While some people may view an easy schedule as a strength for a team, I would argue that it hurts a team. Besides their 2 games with Villanova and a non-conference clash with Purdue, West Virginia is playing a pretty easy schedule. This has the potential to make their team soft and send them into the NCAA tournament untested and prime to be upset by a more hardened, battle tested team.

10. Duke- With the way the Blue Devils have been dying out early in March the last few seasons (and yes the Sweet 16 is early for Duke), I considered dropping them down much lower than the preseason poll had them. Then I remembered who their coach was and quickly dismissed that absurd notion. Duke is back on the rise after a few disappointing seasons, and Kyle Singler will lead the way for the Devils this year. Combine him with Jon Scheyer and the Blue Devils will once again be battling the Tar Heels for ACC supremacy.

Strengths: Returning Singler and Scheyer means the Blue Devils have one of the best 1-2 punches in the nation. When Scheyer is on from beyond the arc he is lights out and Singler is a nightmare to defend, being able to step out and shoot or bang bodies down in the post. Aside from Gerald Henderson and Greg Paulus, the Devils return the meat of their squad and add on a solid group of freshman to boot.

Weaknesses: The Devils gave up a lot of points in a lot of games last season, and then again in some games played rock solid defense. Duke is going to have to bring some defensive consistency to their squad this season if they want to compete for an ACC title. Not to mention as good as Kyle Singler may be down low, Duke needs another big man, whether that be Lance Thomas or Brian Zoubek, to step up this season and do something in the paint. The point guard position was also a revolving door for the Blue Devils last year, with Paulus and Nolan Smith splitting time, and neither of them getting it quite right. Smith needs to step up and run a solid point for Singler, Scheyer and company if they want to return to some of the post season success that the Blue Devils had become accustomed to.

Well there you have it, 6-10 in the books. I am now realizing that I clearly did not stick to my words, as this is just as long as the last post, but hey things happen. I will say that from here on out the previews should get shorter (and I mean it this time) as I have less to say about teams that I feel can not legitimately compete for a national championship. Look forward to hearing everyone's thoughts and stay tuned for 11-15!,

Monday, September 21, 2009

And the Numbers are in....

Well hoop fans, as most people are gearing up for post-season baseball or settling in for Sunday afternoon football, its up to us to pick apart the much talked about preseason top 25. Now, I thought about making my own top 25, but after sitting down and writing it out, I compared it to the actual preseason poll put out and there were only only 3 very slight differences. You can't make this stuff up folks, especially when it comes to the top 10, so we will just go head and break down the poll in use. As much as I wish I could sit here and do all top 25 right now, the real world and a real pay check thinks otherwise. So we will only do the top 5 today. This is how they are listed.

1. Kansas
2. Michigan State
3. Texas
4. Villanova
5. North Carolina

The March Madness Mastermind's top 5 mirrored this one exactly except for the fact that I had Nova' at 3 and Texas at 4, like I said, slight differences. Pretty much everyone in the college basketball world knows that these are the best 5 teams in the county, and I would argue the top 2 being a cut above the rest. Lets take a closer look at the strengths and weakness of each team individually.

1.Kansas- The Jayhawaks, on paper, clearly have the best team in the nation right now. Returning Cole Aldrich means the world for Kansas. Aldrich, a 6'11 junior that averaged 14.5 ppg last season, gives the Jayhawks the best big man, and possibly the best player in the big 12. Along with returning senior guard Sherron Collins (18.9 ppg) the Jayhawks will be in 2 team race with Texas for the Big 12 title and one of my preseason picks to head up a number 1 seed in March.

Strengths:
Expect the Jayhawks to benefit from a Griffinless Oklahoma team. Although Kansas may have fizzled out in March last year before they feel they should have, they are experienced, battle tested, and hungry. The 1-2 combination of Aldrich and Collins, with the support of up and coming sophomore Tyshawn Taylor, will be too much to handle for most of the Big 12.

Weaknesses:
Honestly, I am struggling to see many right now. The only question about the Jayhawks at this point is how much production they will be getting beyond the big 2 of Aldrich and Collins. Guys like Brady Morningstar, Marcus Morris, and Tyrell Reed will have to step it up a notch to insure that the Jayhawks end up where they should be, Indianapolis in March.

2. Michigan State- Had the Spartans been returning Goron Suton, they would have easily earned themselves the number 1 spot in my eyes. However, the 2009 National Runners-up do return Ramar Morgan, Delvon Roe, and Kalin Lucas, a pretty good going away gift in Suton's absence. Don't expect this team to soon forgot how close they got to glory last year in front of their own home crowd. If Tom Izzo's team can find someone to do even half of what Suton did inside last season, the Spartans may be cutting down the nets in Indianapolis instead of watching this year.

Strengths: I think its fairly obvious here that the Spartans biggest strength is the play of their guards. The three guards combined to average 31.5 points per game last year and you should expect that go up to about 45 ppg this season, with significant contributions from Durrel Summers also thrown in the mix. This year's Michigan State team is tournament tested. These young men have been to the brink of a National Title and know the extreme pressure that March can bring. The Big 10 will be down again this season, and as long as the Spartans can handle Purdue, they should have no problem winning their conference.

Weaknesses: Of course the glaring weakness is what to do about the absence of Suton on the inside. The only true center returning on the Spartans roster, Tom Herzog, averaged 2 minutes and .6 ppg last season. This may not be a factor in the Big 10, but come March when the Spartans run into Kansas and Cole Aldrich or Texas and Dexter Pittman or insert another good team with a good big man here, and have a sub-par shooting night, that could spell an early exit. Not to mention this year's Michigan State's team won't be nearly as underestimated as the Spartans of a year ago.

3. Texas- This is where I would have put Villanova, however we will discuss that later. Texas coming in at number 3 put the Big 12 on the radar even more this season. Of course the big factor here is Damion James and his 15 ppg and senior leadership coming back for another season coupled with the addition of top recruits Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton. However, although this Texas team may be very deep, my big X-factor here is Dexter Pittman. In my opinion Pittman's play is going to decide if Texas is a very good team or if the Longhorns are a legitimate national title contender. Stay tuned to find out whether Kansas or Texas will be the first to blink in the stare down for the Big 12 title.

Strengths: Depth, Depth, Depth. Texas is one of the deepest teams in the entire nation. They have good guards, good forwards, and a solid center. The Longhorns will also benefit from the senior leadership that Damion James and Dexter Pittman will provide on the floor to help develop the new freshman. Not to mention, the one time Texas will meet Kansas this year will be in Austin, a huge advantage for the Longhorns. Along with Kansas, Texas will benefit from the Griffin brothers heading to the NBA, making this conference virtually a 2 team race.

Weaknesses: Inexperience. As much as the experience of James and Pittman is one of Texas's strengths, the inexperience of their blue chip rookies is one of the glaring weaknesses the Longhorns have. Losing A.J. Abrams will be tough for the Longhorns to overcome, and they play 3 tough non-conference games against North Carolina, Michigan State, and at UConn. Traditionally Texas doesn't perform well in March, and they are going to have to toughen up down the stretch to change that trend.

4. Villanova- I still say this is my number 3 team and here is why. Although Villanova lost leading scorer Dante Cunningham, that is all they lost. Compared to what Syracuse, Pittsburg, UConn, and the rest of the Big East lost, Nova' is loaded. Scottie Reynolds will quarterback this team which, barring a huge collapse, should win the Big East by 2 games at least. The Wildcats incoming freshman class, possibly the best in the Big East, will only add to their dominance of the conference and a good shot at a number 1 seed in March.

Strengths: Nova's biggest strength comes externally from the weakened Big East this year. Although the Big East is ever an easy conference by any means, as I said before too many teams lost so much more than the Wildcats did. Along the same lines as Michigan Sate, Villanova will benefit from the Final Four experience from a year before, mirroring the Spartans by being knocked out by the eventual National Champions, UNC. If Scottie Reynolds takes over the leading role that will be expected of him, The Cats should win the Big East and make more noise in the tournament again this season.

Weaknesses: Again this year I see a big weakness for Villanova being a presence on the inside. Nova', much like the Duke teams of late, lives and dies by its guard play. In the 2009 NCAA tournament the Wildcats were able to sneak by Pitt and DeJaun Blair , but fell to UNC when Tyler Hansbrough became too much for them to handle. The Wildcats may struggle at times when their guards end up in foul trouble or have an off shooting night.

5. North Carolina- There is no need to get into what the Defending National Champions lost to the NBA draft this year, because everyone in the college basketball world knows it was a ton. On the plus side for the Heels they get senior guard and defensive specialist Marcus Ginyard back after sitting out last year with an injury. Throw in sophomore Ed Davis and some production from Tyler Zeller, and the Heels will still be a huge contender in the ACC.

Strengths: Roy Williams is going to find a way to win folks and still has what seems to be his always endless deep bench. Ginyard will be the leader of this team, and Ed Davis is poised to have a tremendous breakout season for this team. UNC has brought in one of the strongest recruiting classes in the nation, with rookie John Henson looking to have a huge freshman season. Pay special attention to the Tar Heels non-conference schedule that sends them to Texas and Kentucky, and gives them a National Championship rematch at home against Michigan State. This may seem like a weakness, but these games will build toughness for the young Heels.

Weaknesses: By far the biggest question mark for the Tar Heels is going to be the point guard position. With Ty Lawson (and his toe) and his back up Bobby Frasior both gone, the point position will most likely be left to Larry Drew III at least to start the season. To say the least, Drew III looked less than impressive during his limited time on the court for the Tar Heels last year. Inexperience of all the young players will rear its ugly head for UNC, especially in Big ACC games and in March. Although the Heels will always bounce back, they may be waiting until next season to see another shot at the Final Four.

Those are my thoughts on the top 5 ladies and gentlemen. Feel free to agree/disagree and let me know if there is anything you think I missed that should be added. In my opinion any of these top 4 teams have what it takes to win a National Championship. As soon as I get a chance I will dissect 6-10, which will be a bit of a harder task as the strengths become less and the weakness increase. Enjoy!

Sunday, September 20, 2009

No Cinderella in the Sweet 16? No Problem!

Well hoop heads, since it is currently the off season, for my first actual post I am going to use somewhat of an "archived" writing of mine. Before I actually got around to starting this blog I used to get my thoughts out any way that I could. This particular post comes in the form of a facebook note that I posted before the 2009 Sweet 16. Although its all been said and done for quite sometime now and a new season is just around the corner, I would still love to hear your thoughts on the topic. Enjoy!

The sweet 16 is upon us, and being the college basketball addict that I am I couldn't be more excited. Therefore a combination of insomnia and my current state of disagreement that I am in with most professional sports writers has caused me to do a little bit of blogging on my own. If your looking for Sweet 16 predictions for the sake of arguing with me, read no further because that's not what I am getting off my chest here. I am more here to talk about how this unique sweet 16 is going to be one of the best, because Cinderella didn't get her invite to the ball.

Most professionals around the sporting world are saying the NCAA tournament has become dull. That more and more mid-major teams are being bumped out of the tournament in favor of the "power conference" teams, leaving less and less chance for Cinderella to shine through and have their day in the sun. While this may be true (this is the lowest number of mid-major at large bids we have ever seen) what most people are failing to take into account is the clash of the titans that this unique scenario has given us to look forward to. First of all if your counting Arizona as a Cinderella team just because they are a 12 seed, stop doing so right now. Arizona has 3 future NBA stars (Wise, Budinger, and Hill), beat the elite in the Pac-10 on several occasions, and got a huge helping hand into the second round when Cleveland St. embarrassed Wake Forrest in the first round. So you may find yourself asking, "What do I have to look forward to now that the so called Cinderella teams are gone home packing and we are "stuck" watching the high seeds play the tourney out?" Well my friends strap in because its gonna be a wild ride to the Motor City.

Now there is no possible way I can deny the excitement of a 13 or 14 seed making a run that busts up everyones bracket. Those types of upsets make the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament my favorite weekend in sports aside from Semifinal Saturday. However, what most people are failing to realize is how "Cinderella" can have a negative effect on the later rounds of the tournament. After pulling upsets in the first two rounds to make the Sweet 16, chances are Cinderella is going to run into a Giant of the college basketball world in every round from here on out. This opens up an entire world of problems. First of all many of these teams rely on one or two key players that have carried them this far. By the time they are in the Sweet 16 these teams are TIRED, and generally they do not have the bench to back it up. They are not used to playing teams that are at the level of competition they face in the Sweet 16. The problem with this? Most of the time it results in a stroll into the elite 8 for the non cinderella and a 20 point blow out that has everyone switching to Family Guy before the end of the first half. Before you all jump down my throats with your, "What about George Mason?" and your, "Did you not see Davidson last year" comments, of course there are exceptions to every rule. I enjoyed watching Mason's run as much as the next fan and the game they beat UConn was something special that I won't soon forget. However, lest we forget what happened in the final 4? A blow out loss that allowed Florida to steal a ton of minutes for its power players and eventually crush UCLA in one of the most boring national title games I have ever witnessed. Davidson? They are nothing but Stephen Curry, and when he is down the team is less than subpar and does not deserve to be in the NCAA tournament. Note their games this year where Curry did not play. Note their 6 seed in the NIT. Note their quarterfinal loss to a Mt. St. Mary's team (who many argued should have made the field of 64, however they are another one man team in Patty Mills). Not to mention the last Cinderella that actually went on to capture a national title was a Rollie Massimino lead Villanova team over 20 years ago in 1985. So with Cinderella sitting at home scrubbing the floors, what do you have to look forward to in this year's sweet 16 and beyond?

This sweet 16 is going to be packed full of wire to wire games that will be earned by every team that wins. In the Midwest you are treated to Lousiville vs. Arizona, and a battle between Earl Clark and Jordan Hill that will be fantastic to watch, along with a rematch between Kansas and Michigan State that clashes Goron Suton and Cole Aldrich, two of the premire big men in the nation. Look at the West, UConn against Purdue. Will the grind out style of the Big Ten and play of Robbie Hummel prevail or will the run and gun Big East team with Thabeet come out on top? You cannot ask for a better match up then Mizzou v. Memphis. Tigers against Tigers will provide one of the best matchups in the entire sweet 16. In the East Pitt has been shaky all tournament and Xavier is a guard dominated team that has the chance to shoot them out of the tournament. With Duke making its return to the Sweet 16, the draw a Villanova team that plays the same style of ball as they do. In the South, fans of high scoring games better tune in. Expect UNC and Gonzaga to provide an offensive explosion. Syracuse and Oklahoma are both capable of putting up points in bunches, the Griffins agaist Flynn and Devendorf is a match up that I am already looking forward to. What it all boils down to is the fact that no one has an easy road to the Elite 8 this year let alone the final 4. No matter what the outcomes of the sweet 16 games each winner will face another battle ahead of them in the elite 8 before they can punch their ticket to Detroit. This season we are assured that the 4 teams that will play at Ford Field will 100% deserve to be there as they have defeated the best of the best to make it.

Please do not think for a minute that I have lost the magic that a Cinderella story brings to March. That is simply not the case. I am still on edge when a 15 is close with a 2 or a 14 is about to take down a 3 seed. It just breaks my March Madness heart everyone saying that the tournament has become boring because there are no lower seeds in the sweet 16. The tournament has simply taken on a different face this year that entails the giants battling for the final 4 tickets instead of the Cinderellas. That is the joy of March Madness, every year the story is played out in a totally different way, just as it has this year. So Cinderella, don't fire your fairy godmother yet, the glass slipper will still fit for next year's dance.

Meet The March Madness Mastermind

Hello there hoops fan! I assume that you would all want to know a little bit about me, so I will do my best to explain the methods behind my (March) Madness. My name is Tom, I am 23 years old and from a small town in central Illinois. For my entire life (or at least what I can remember of it) I have followed college basketball almost like it was a religion. My head is jammed with more stats and trivia about NCAA Hoops than I will ever admit to anyone, which brings me to the reason I created The College Hoops Corner. Although I have many friends that are very versed in the sports world, most of them do not follow college basketball nearly close enough to provide me with the in depth, enlightened, conversation that I desire. So I come here to vent my thoughts, concerns, predictions, joys, sorrows, and anything else that can possibly pop into my head about this wonderful sport. I am going to do my best to stay unbiased, even to the point where I am going to attempt to keep my favorite team, who those of you who may know me personally know how passionate I am about, a mystery. That being said those of you that DO know me, please respect this wish and do not post anything public that may give this information away. I encourage everyone to enjoy my posts and invite you to agree/disagree with me whenever you feel the need to. However please keep it respectful, as I will respect your opinion to the fullest. So look around, have fun, and let the Madness begin!